Dumb conversations lose track of time10/31/2023 SCALISE’S SILENT SUPPORTERS: Jordan allies gladly note that their guy has about twice as many public backers as Scalise. Related read: “McCarthy, Jordan and Scalise’s long history seeps into speaker fight,” by WaPo’s Paul Kane “They are literally trying every dirty trick to fuck with Steve,” one Scalise supporter said. For one thing, the ex-speaker’s dalliances with a comeback has complicated Scalise’s effort to woo centrist members who are ideologically distant from Jordan but have long supported McCarthy. Then he gave a full-throated endorsement yesterday to the idea of raising the nomination threshold to 217.īoth moves were seen as swipes at Scalise, and they infuriated the Louisianan’s allies and raised eyebrows even among McCarthy’s own loyalists. McCARTHY’S MEDDLING: McCarthy spent the past few days flirting with the idea of running for speaker again, ginning up his allies before backing down yesterday and telling members not to vote for him. And if no one gets to 217 by then, the entire process starts over.Ī couple of other critical dynamics to keep an eye on … In fact, the new rule calls for as many as four rounds of voting with intense interrogation sessions between each. On the other hand, if the rule change is adopted, settle in: Winning the support of 217 Republicans could take a while. While it’s not a perfect proxy for the speaker’s race, it will be a good sign for Scalise if the proposal goes down, several members told us. ![]() That means there should be some hints to glean from the rule vote. “The fact that there are these shenanigans tells me we’re in a pretty good spot,” said one GOP lawmaker allied with Scalise. What’s especially interesting is that there is something of a divide between who’s vocally supporting the rule change (mainly Jordan and McCarthy allies) and who’s vocally opposing it - many of whom see the maneuver as an attempt to keep Scalise from quickly rolling up the nomination. Opponents fear that without the pressure of a public floor vote, Republicans could spend weeks in what one GOP aide called a “doom loop” trying to nominate a speaker. Those supporting the change argue it would be much better for Republicans to duke out their differences behind closed doors rather than on the House floor à la January. Before the voting on the nomination even begins, Republicans will decide on an 11th-hour conference rules change that would temporarily raise the threshold for the party nod from a simple majority of the conference to 217 - the number of votes needed to triumph on the floor. But the lack of hell-no ultimatums suggests we’re in for wheeling and dealing but not deadlock. Sure, members might threaten to withhold their support on the floor to win a concession or two. Unlike during McCarthy’s slog for the gavel, few - if any - GOP lawmakers are publicly insisting they won’t ever back Scalise or Jordan. But it’s a safe bet that whoever wins the nomination will become the next speaker. As we learned in January, when the party vote was followed by 15 rounds on the floor, today’s balloting won’t be the final word on the speakership. ![]() But we will creep out onto a limb with a couple of observations based on our reporting: So we’re going to refrain from making any predictions about who is going to prevail. KELLY ARMSTRONG (R-N.D.) put it to Axios’ Juliegrace Brufke last night, that means two things: “One, people don't have to tell you who they're voting for - and two, they can lie to you about who they're voting for.” ![]() ![]() Today’s voting will be done by secret ballot, and, as Rep. That doesn’t mean one side is necessarily lying. THROWDOWN IN THE HOUSE - In just a few hours, House Republicans will gather to nominate KEVIN McCARTHY’s successor as speaker, and we noticed something curious as we spent all yesterday checking in with allies of the two rivals for the gavel, STEVE SCALISE and JIM JORDAN: Both camps are quite confident that their candidate is ahead and will ultimately win. Few - if any - GOP lawmakers are publicly insisting they won’t ever back Steve Scalise or Jim Jordan.
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